Logano looking to go 3-for-3 at Kentucky

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/08/2010 - Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, June 12. Race: Meijer 300. Site: Kentucky Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 300. 2009 winner: Joey Logano. Television: ESPN. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

This weekend's race at Kentucky is the second in a stretch of three consecutive stand-alone events for the Nationwide Series. After last week's Nashville-Pocono combo, three of the four double-duty drivers were tops at Nashville. Brad Keselowski won there, while Carl Edwards finished second and Paul Menard took third. Michael McDowell crashed midway through the race and ended up finishing 30th.

With the win, Keselowski increased his lead to 196 points over Kyle Busch, who remained second in the standings, despite not competing at Nashville. Busch, the 2009 Nationwide champion, only raced at Pocono in order to focus on his Sprint Cup Series efforts this season.

Brad Coleman drove Busch's No.18 Toyota to a sixth-place finish at Nashville. Coleman also will drive the car at Kentucky.

Busch's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Joey Logano, will join the group of drivers doing the Kentucky-Michigan duo.

Kentucky/Michigan is the first time this season that Logano will attempt double duty at two different tracks. He will practice and qualify for the 400- mile Sprint Cup race at Michigan on Friday afternoon before traveling to Kentucky to practice for the Nationwide event there later in the evening. Logano will then return to Michigan that night to be able to participate in Saturday morning's final Cup practice. He will fly back to Kentucky in time to qualify for the 300-mile Nationwide race. However, JGR development driver Matt DiBenedetto will be on standby.

Logano has started on the pole and won the last two Nationwide races at Kentucky. In 2008, he became the youngest race winner in the series at age 18 years and 21 days.

"I'm pumped to head back to Kentucky Speedway," Logano said. "That place holds a lot of special memories for me. It's the track that I got my first Nationwide Series win, and it's the track that I first tested a Sprint Cup car. It's my most successful track. There are not a lot of drivers out there that can go to a track more than once and say that they are batting 1.000."

Logano is the only repeat winner there.

Kentucky also will be the second of four "Dash 4 Cash" races on the 2010 Nationwide schedule. Nationwide Insurance sponsors the bonus program, with eligible drivers having an opportunity to collect an extra $25,000 if they win. Drivers who qualify include: full-time and part-time/limited schedule series-only regulars, as well as double-duty drivers who competed in every series event.

Kevin Harvick won the first "Dash 4 Cash" event this season in April at Nashville. Harvick, who was a full-time Nationwide driver at the time, collected the money award. He is not competing at Kentucky, which is probably a good thing for Logano.

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Meijer 300.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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