Israel stays alive against Chile in Davis Cup

Tennis Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - Coquimbo, Chile (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Israeli doubles specialists Jonathan Erlich and Andy Ram posted a big victory on Sunday, as the Israelis pulled within 1-2 of the host Chileans in their best-of-five first-round Davis Cup matchup.

Erlich and Ram fought back for a 6-7 (5-7), 7-6 (11-9), 2-6, 6-1, 6-0 victory over a Chilean tandem of Jorge Aguilar and Paul Capdeville.

Monday's reverse singles will decide the winner here, as Chilean Fernando Gonzalez will take on Dudi Sela in the first match and Nicolas Massu is scheduled to face Harel Levy in a possible deciding rubber.

On Saturday, Massu got the Chileans going with a 4-6, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4 victory over Sela and Gonzalez doubled the hosts' advantage by overcoming Levy 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 on the red clay here in Coquimbo.

This week's matchup started a day late -- Saturday instead of Friday -- because of the tragic earthquake and tsunami that struck Chile last week, killing about 800 people. The Enjoy Tennis Center was unaffected by the disaster and the local airport was open, but transportation problems delayed the arrival of players and officials.

The Chileans are captained by Hans Gildemeister, while Eyal Ran is serving as the Israeli skipper.

Chile and Israel have split two all-time meetings, with the Chileans prevailing in 1960 and Israel, a surprise Davis Cup semifinalist last year, coming out on top three years ago.

The Chile-Israel winner will meet the Czech Republic in July's quarterfinals.

Wwwbullysports Tennis Betting News


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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

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Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

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MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

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