2010 Southeastern Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The competition level will be through the roof in Nashville this week, as all 12 SEC teams will compete in the 51st annual conference tournament. On the line is an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and the majority of the teams in the league are well aware that their hopes of earning a ticket to the "Big Dance" depend solely on winning this event.

Kentucky has won more SEC Tournament titles than all of the other conference members combined, and the Wildcats enter this year's field as the top seed from the East Division. The Wildcats will attempt to capture their first crown since 2004, but they figure to be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of their finish in this event. The East Division is considerably stronger than the West, as it can be argued that the best four teams in the SEC all come from the East. Vanderbilt (E-2), Tennessee (E-3) and Florida (E-4) are all capable of knocking off Kentucky and winning this tournament. Vanderbilt and Tennessee have the necessary records to reach the NCAA Tournament without winning this league tourney. In regard to the West, even top-seeded Mississippi State has a shaky resume' and needs to cut down the nets in Nashville. The lone team in the field that has never won the SEC Tournament is South Carolina. The first round of this event begins on Thursday, as the third through sixth seeds in both divisions will be in action. The top two seeds in both divisions will open play on Friday, March 12th, in the quarterfinal round, and after semifinal action on Saturday, the championship game will be played on "Selection Sunday".

The first of four first-round games pits the Alabama Crimson Tide (W-4) against the South Carolina Gamecocks (E-5). Alabama has won this tournament six times, the second most in the league, but the last crown was captured way back in 1991. Still, the Tide is 57-43 in this event. South Carolina, as mentioned, is still in search of its first title, and the Gamecocks are 16-18 in SEC Tournament affairs. Alabama beat South Carolina by nine points in the only regular-season meeting between the teams. The Crimson Tide depend heavily on their defense to win games, as they are second in the conference in scoring defense (64.6 ppg). Mikhail Torrance (15.4 ppg, 5.3 apg) and JaMychal Green (14.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg) are clearly the two best players on the roster for 'Bama. As for South Carolina, it possess the league's leading scorer in Devan Downey (22.6 ppg), and the senior is also handing out 3.5 apg. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks are last in the league in free-throw percentage, assists and rebounding margin.

Tennessee (E-3) and LSU (W-6) are slated to do battle on Thursday afternoon in what may be the most lopsided matchup of the first round. The Vols have won the SEC Tournament four times, but it has been 31 years since their last title. Last season, Tennessee reached the championship game, only to fall to Mississippi State in a 64-61 final. As for LSU, it captured its lone SEC crown back in 1980, so it can certainly relate to Tennessee's long wait for a championship. The Vols and Tigers played just once during the regular season, and Tennessee escaped Baton Rouge with a five-point win. The Vols own the second-best scoring margin in the SEC (+9.8 ppg), surprising considering the fact that they don't possess a single player ranked in the top 20 in the league in scoring. Tennessee is the top team in the conference when it comes to defending the three-point shot. As for LSU, it finished 2-14 versus SEC opponents during the regular season, but the team did close out the campaign with a victory and may enter this tournament with some confidence. Unfortunately, the Tigers completely lack depth and are the lowest-scoring team in the SEC (61.9 ppg) despite boasting two of the league's top 13 scorers, including Tasmin Mitchell (17.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg).

The Florida Gators (E-4), will do battle with Auburn (W-5) in the first round. A 20-win season used to assure teams from major conferences a berth in the NCAA Tournament, but teams are playing more games than ever, so Florida needs to play well in this event to punch its ticket to the "Big Dance". The Gators own a 32-41 all-time record in this event, but they captured three straight titles from 2005 through 2007, so the majority of their success has been recent. As for Auburn, it has struggled in the SEC Tournament, posting a 27-46 record, and the program's lone championship came back in 1985. The Gators beat the Tigers by eight points in the only meeting between the teams during the regular season. The fact that Florida is able to field a starting lineup with five double-digit scorers is impressive. The Gators are last in the league in blocked shots but tops in assist/turnover ratio. Auburn is the worst defensive team in the SEC, allowing 74.0 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting by opponents. The Tigers possess the sixth and seventh ranked scorers in the league in DeWayne Reed (16.1 ppg) and Tay Waller (15.9 ppg).

Rounding out the pairings in the first round will be the Arkansas Razorbacks (W-3) and the Georgia Bulldogs (E-6). Arkansas is 20-17 all-time in this event and won its lone title back in 2000. As for Georgia, it has two championships to its credit, the most recent of which was earned in 2008. The Razorbacks beat the Bulldogs by four points on the road in the only regular-season meeting between the clubs. Arkansas is ranked 11th out of 12 SEC teams in scoring defense, and the team is last in three-point percentage defense. Rotnei Clarke leads the Razorbacks with 15.5 ppg, and Marshawn Powell is close behind with 15.1 ppg. Georgia's top performer is Trey Thompkins (17.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who ranks second in the SEC in scoring and fourth in rebounding. His Bulldogs are 11th in scoring margin among conference teams, however, and they are last in turnover margin.

The winner of the South Carolina/Alabama matchup will advance to the quarterfinal round to face Kentucky. The Wildcats have won this event 25 times and own a 111-22 record in SEC Tournament games. Still, they haven't cut down the nets since 2004 and haven't reached the title game since 2005. Kentucky leads the conference in many statistical categories, including scoring offense (79.9 ppg), scoring margin (+14.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.478), field goal percentage defense (.382), rebounding margin (+9.1 rpg) and assists (14.9 apg). Freshman sensation John Wall is averaging 17.0 ppg to go along with a league-best 6.2 apg, and fellow rookie star DeMarcus Cousins checks in with 15.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 1.8 bpg. Don't forget about Patrick Patterson and his 15.0 ppg and 7.6 rpg.

The second quarterfinal game to be played on Friday pits the Ole Miss Rebels (W-2) against either LSU or Tennessee. Ole Miss won its only SEC championship in 1981, and the team's 23-46 conference record is far from impressive. Rebels' standout guard Chris Warren ranks third in the SEC in scoring with 17.2 ppg and ninth in assists (3.4 apg). Ole Miss is second in the league in scoring with 78.4 ppg, and the team shoots the ball efficiently from three- point range. The Rebels are second in assist/turnover ratio and have the talent in place to make a run in this event.

Mississippi State (W-1) awaits the winner of the Auburn/Florida matchup, and that quarterfinal matchup figures to be competitive regardless of the pairing. MSU is the defending champion of this event as mentioned, and the program has three titles to its credit. Still, its 25-46 record at this event all-time is poor. The man to watch for the Bulldogs is star forward/center Jarvis Varnado, who recently became the NCAA's all-time leader in blocked shots. In addition to his 4.8 rejections per outing, Varnado also paces the conference in rebounding (10.6 ppg) and is scoring 13.5 ppg as well. Mississippi State is the best defensive team in the league in regard to scoring defense (64.4 ppg), and the club is limiting opponents to 38.4 percent shooting from the field. Dee Bost is a tremendous distributor at point guard who ranks second in the SEC in assists (5.4 apg).

The Vanderbilt Commodores (W-2) will play either Georgia or Arkansas in the quarterfinals. Vandy's lone SEC Tournament title was earned way back in 1951, by far the longest drought of any of the teams that have won the crown. The Commodores are 29-47 in the event, but this year's team is one of the best in recent memory. Vanderbilt is the best free-throw shooting team in the conference, and that asset could certainly prove critical in close tournament games. While the Commodores do lack the type of player capable of taking a game over at the offensive end, there are three double-digit scorers in the fold. Jermaine Beal (14.7 ppg), A.J. Ogilvy (13.9 ppg) and Jeffery Taylor (13.9 ppg) provide plenty of balance to the lineup.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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